Mozambique’s South Underwater as Floods Expose Deepening Climate and Preparedness Gaps

By Herman Ramos

Severe flooding triggered by weeks of torrential rain has forced tens of thousands of people from their homes in southern Mozambique, leaving entire communities submerged and some residents stranded on rooftops, trees, and vehicles as waters continue to rise.

Since early January 2026, relentless rainfall has inundated large parts of Maputo and Gaza provinces, turning residential neighbourhoods into floodplains and cutting off critical transport routes.

According to official figures, more than 620,000 people have been directly affected, with over 72,000 houses flooded and extensive damage reported to roads, bridges and health facilities.

Social and economic infrastructure has been hit hard. Since 7 January, floods have damaged 229 health units, 366 schools, four bridges and more than 1,300 kilometres of roads. Agriculture, central to livelihoods in the affected regions, has suffered devastating losses. An estimated 287,000 hectares of productive land were flooded, disrupting the activity of nearly 216,000 farmers. Authorities also report the death of more than 325,000 head of livestock, including cattle, goats and poultry, according to data from the National Institute for Disaster Risk Reduction and Management (INGD).

A country on the frontline of climate shocks

Mozambique is widely recognised as one of the countries most exposed to climate change, repeatedly battered by floods and tropical cyclones. In the 2024–2025 rainy season alone, cyclones Chido, Dikeledi and Jude struck the country, killing at least 313 people, injuring more than 1,200, and affecting over 1.8 million others.

This year’s floods have reinforced those vulnerabilities. On 15 January 2026, the National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) issued a red alert, warning of continued heavy to very heavy rainfall in Gaza and Maputo provinces, with a high risk of flooding, flash floods and lightning strikes.

The alert also highlighted a compounding risk: rising water levels in major dams. Several reservoirs reached critical capacity, forcing authorities to open floodgates and release large volumes of water downstream. These discharges intensified flooding in areas already saturated by rain, submerging homes and severing road links, particularly at river crossings, leaving communities isolated.

One of the most critical disruptions occurred at the bridge connecting Boane and Massaca, in Maputo province, over the Umbelúzi River, downstream from the Pequenos Libombos dam. 

Prolonged rainfall, combined with increased dam discharges in both Mozambique and neighbouring countries, led to river levels surging beyond containment capacity.

“Our home is now completely underwater,” said a 25-year-old displaced resident reached by phone from a resettlement centre. “We had to flee, but some of our neighbours stayed behind. They are calling us to say they are sheltering on rooftops as the water keeps rising.”

Cities turned into waterways

In Gaza province, videos shared on official municipal social media pages show Xai-Xai’s streets transformed into fast-flowing channels, with floodwaters flowing through the city’s central areas. 

In nearby Chókwè, a town with a long history of devastating floods, images reveal water covering almost entire neighbourhoods, with only the tips of rooftops visible above the surface.

Although rainfall has begun to ease in some areas, rescue operations are ongoing. Hundreds of families remain trapped, some taking refuge on roofs, treetops or vehicles. Emergency teams, supported by aircraft from South Africa, private boats and the Mozambican navy, have been conducting evacuations where access is possible.

Major transport arteries remain affected. In Maputo province, National Road N1, a key link to the north and south of the country, has been rendered impassable by rising water levels. Repair and reconnection works have started in several locations, including along the N1 near 3 de Fevereiro, in the Manhiça district, where the Incomáti River overflowed its banks.

Humanitarian response and international support

The scale of the disaster has prompted an international response. The European Union, the United States, Portugal, Norway, Japan, and several Southern African countries have announced and delivered emergency humanitarian assistance to support Mozambique’s response.

Paola Emerson, head of the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) in Mozambique, said Gaza province remains the most affected. “The volume of water we are seeing raises serious concerns about vulnerability,” she said. “There has been strong mobilisation from donors, both in financial support and humanitarian supplies. But given that around 600,000 people have been affected, and nearly 400,000 have had their homes flooded or destroyed, much more assistance will be needed. Every form of support is welcome.”

The African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights has also expressed deep concern, warning that the sharp increase in rainfall has had severe consequences across central and southern Mozambique, particularly in Gaza, Maputo, Inhambane and Sofala provinces.

Economic ripple effects and tourism losses

Beyond the immediate humanitarian crisis, the floods are expected to have lasting economic consequences. With vast agricultural areas destroyed and livestock losses mounting, food prices are likely to rise in the coming months, further straining household incomes.

The tourism sector is already feeling the impact. Vasco Manhiça, president of the Maputo City Hotels Association, says cancellations are increasing. “Many people may decide not to travel to Mozambique due to safety concerns or mobility challenges,” he said. “There is also a loss of income. Tour guides, artisans and small communities that depend on tourism will be among the hardest hit.”

Vasco Manhiça, president of the Maputo City Hotels Association

Manhiça argues that the country needs a more robust and proactive approach. “We need a risk management plan to maintain confidence in the tourism market,” he said. “We cannot keep treating these events as if they were new phenomena. These floods happened in 2023 and are happening again in 2026. Some measures were taken, but they are not enough.”

Warnings that came too early to be ignored

The current disaster has also reignited questions about preparedness and systemic weaknesses, not only in emergency response, but in translating forecasts into effective prevention.

In September 2025, INAM issued its seasonal climate outlook for 2025/2026, forecasting above-normal rainfall and a high risk of floods and cyclones. The outlook warned of particularly intense rainfall in southern Mozambique between October and December 2025, followed by nationwide impacts from January to March 2026, conditions that demanded heightened preparedness, especially in flood-prone areas such as Gaza province.

Daily meteorological forecasts and hydrological bulletins from the National Directorate of Water Resources Management further indicated that water levels were expected to rise in major river basins, including the Maputo, Incomáti, Umbelúzi, Limpopo, Save and Rovuma rivers, among others, recommending preventive measures to mitigate increased flow.

On 10 January, the Southern Regional Water Administration (ARA-Sul) issued a special notice announcing a gradual increase in discharges from the Pequenos Libombos, Corumana and Massingir dams, warning that flooding was likely across southern regions.

Yet, as waters recede in some places and continue to rise in others, the floods of 2026 stand as another stark reminder: in a country increasingly shaped by climate extremes, early warnings alone are not enough without sustained investment in preparedness, resilient infrastructure and risk-informed planning.